contemporary artifacts

Tag: predictions

  • The Signal and the Noise

    The Signal and the Noise

    The signal and the noise: why most predictions fail but some don’tNate Silver; Penguin Press 2012   The Boston Red Sox failed to make the playoffs in 2011 despite having a 99.7 percent chance of doing so at one point27—although I wouldn’t question anyone who says the normal laws of probability don’t apply when it…